Students will learn the basics of probability and use the theoretical and experimental probability of simple and compound events to make predictions.Students will use models and simulations to determine probabilities. Students will build on experiences with measures of center, five number summary, plots of numerical data and proportional reasoning to draw comparisons between two populations.
Standards Mathematics 7th Grade Statistics and Probability
- MGSE7.SP1 Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences.
- MGSE7.SP2 Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or prediction might be.
- MGSE7.SP3 Informally assess the degree of visual overlap of two numerical data distributions with similar variabilities, measuring the difference between the medians by expressing it as a multiple of the interquartile range.
- MGSE7.SP4 Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations. For example, decide whether the words in a chapter of a seventh‐grade science book are generally longer than the words in a chapter of a fourth‐grade science book.
- MGSE7.SP5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
- MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
- MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
- MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
- MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.
- MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
- MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
- MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?
- MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
- MGSE7.RP.3 Use proportional relationships to solve multistep ratio and percent problems. Examples: simple interest, tax, markups and markdowns, gratuities and commissions, and fees.